Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 37.454419 42.569405 48.660810 56.613157 66.986008 80.477638 100.155941
2025-04-20 30.613505 36.784219 44.915059 56.964923 75.535469 105.693875 166.555431
2025-04-27 26.496419 33.130211 42.555075 58.035025 85.792777 142.931610 325.124158
2025-05-04 23.658144 30.487540 40.779000 59.202442 97.223325 198.903365 903.194714
2025-05-11 21.399489 28.200027 38.916549 59.473908 107.484825 277.007908 10458.537639
2025-05-18 19.496895 26.113387 36.890803 58.700735 115.196007 379.944032 NaN
2025-05-25 18.156176 24.693352 35.685131 59.146495 127.069078 594.341916 NaN
2025-06-01 16.939783 23.306239 34.273427 58.687796 136.357878 961.746624 NaN
2025-06-08 15.898832 22.083691 32.956058 58.050542 145.083295 1776.375516 NaN
2025-06-15 14.998741 21.001898 31.738625 57.314869 153.395834 4431.219917 NaN
2025-06-22 14.272224 20.144861 30.831169 57.123285 164.836902 120756.610816 NaN
2025-06-29 13.532654 19.200614 29.632040 55.857710 170.063955 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 13.299383 19.136103 30.215010 59.808944 215.145087 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.693098 18.355139 29.222588 58.911204 227.048498 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.248330 17.833183 28.717604 59.404067 254.167054 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 11.870525 17.404240 28.360551 60.294677 291.412498 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.475563 16.914391 27.813269 60.414145 324.192357 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.054084 16.347431 27.035802 59.543129 343.478956 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.741574 15.966422 26.640829 59.960752 390.953251 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.402751 15.514735 26.039834 59.472549 424.164941 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.079675 15.075447 25.428958 58.811885 455.411838 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.774289 14.654497 24.826246 58.055695 485.441399 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.517243 14.314138 24.386093 57.857773 538.888688 NaN NaN